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如果你不想让秘密君消失在你的生命里，

大概有三件事可以做：

南开说我有大学、有老城厢、有奥体，从人文到底蕴一样不缺。

河西说我有市府驻地，梅江片区、文化中心，主打一个新潮。

▲天津南开大学实景图

特别是楼市，河西以学区闻名，梅江名片很多年风头十足，河北河东红桥客户莫不向往。而南开不动声色端出一堆豪宅盘，顶尖配置顶尖产品顶尖品牌。但有一点共识是：河西就像梅江一样，更受新锐的认可，而南开积淀丰厚，更容易获得对城市底蕴有认同群体的青睐。在新钱与老钱之间论优劣不太合适，但今年的南开想告诉楼市一个道理：hold住老钱，也一定能搞定新锐。

PART 01

产业才是激活楼市的硬道理！

关于什么叫有钱人，我查过很多资料，在《2023年中国财富报告》中将可投资资产超过1000万元的个人统称为“高净值人群”。可投资资产包括个人金融资产、投资性房产，但不包括自住房。

另一份报告《2023年中国新富人群财富健康指数》里把正在走向富裕的消费群体，可投资资产小于700万人民币的人群定义为新富阶层。

▲

《

2023年中国新富人群财富健康指数

》节选

非常有意思的一点是：新富阶层普遍的财富信心来源于经济持续增长，其次是对个人理财能力以及稳定的家庭收入的信心。

这恰恰印证了很多粉丝的看法：真正激活楼市的从来不是楼市政策，而是经济的全面复苏。

不论是新富阶层还是高净值人群，房地产一直是资产配置中非常重要的内容，也是楼市最坚实的购买力之一。这部分人的信心与经济持续增长密切相关，这就意味着经济增长会从根本上影响楼市走向。

过去几年中，什么样的经济行业最阳光明媚？高净值人群报告显示创富一代、董监高、职业经理人占比高达49%。而机器人、物联网、人工智能和生物技术的大幅发展让相应财富人群出现辐射延伸效应。

曾经大热的互联网相较于2021年，在高净值人群中已经出现缩减。

换句话说：互联网已经是过去，机器人、物联网、人工智能和生物技术才是造富的未来。而且这些行业的智力门槛从来都不低，但在天津，恰恰是南开的长处与优势。

2023年天津最重要的事件之一就是天开园横空出世，就一己愚见：它代表着天津重拾自我培育产业龙头，代表着天津激活核心区，代表着重新打造未来城市发展的经济发动机。

首批入驻天开园的项目涵盖了新能源新材料、高端装备制造、物联网、大数据与人工智能、生物医药等领域，这些恰恰都是明日之星。

1月20日，天开九安海河海棠50亿科创母基金签约发布，1月29日天开园与燧原科技签署合作协议，中国电信天津分公司将布局建设京津冀智能算力中心。这些炙手可热的当红领域无一例外落户天开园，恐怕是其他区域羡慕不来的。

按照2023年底官方新闻，仅天开广场351家企业中，师生、校友企业就达284家，占比81%。南开的底蕴这时候表现的淋漓尽致。

▲天开高教科创园实景图

如果说河西是采摘河北红桥河东高收入人群改善需求释放的果子，南开今天种下一棵树，期待着产业带动相关行业，大家都有果子吃。就像人才汇聚后的硅谷在积聚与造富的叠加下，间接推动房价快速上升，这种潜力绝对不是常规房地产逻辑可比的存在。

PART 02

城市大变脸，南开后发制人

天开园核心区是规整的围合，但是在方正的围合上，特别注明范围包含慧谷大厦及天环客运站泰达地块。该地块属于天拖城市更新范畴，被划入天开园之时，依然是一片厂房，让很多人大为不解。

最新规划显示，天环客运站泰达地块将会新建接近15万平方米的产业建筑，主导方向是科创都市产业园。天津城市更新几乎无一例外是商品房平衡，新建商业与老旧小区改造。但在产业先导理念下，南开城市更新最明显的特点就是：产业互动性极强。

▲天开高教科创园区位图

天拖城市更新项目计划引入的产业龙头包括信创类的京东方、蓝色光标，科研应用的国家新型显示基数、工业互联网、元宇宙研究中心；产业平台知识产权交易中心等等，同时配套部分引入诸多首店配套。

所以天拖城市更新规划甫一出炉，就有很多老南开说：南开腹地的城市界面将会迎来一次跃升。

天拖城市更新项目处在鞍山西道与红旗路的交口位置，鞍山西道是南开中部的东西干线，联通包括天南大、百脑汇一系列成熟商业区，而且这条线上直接通往天大与和平，向经过天拖北道链接简阳路城市快速干线，可以实现整个西部片区的无缝衔接。红旗路是南北干线，一路可以通往西站片区，南侧与水上、翠屏公园链接，这个点位是南北东西交通的必经之地。所以6、8、11号线在这个片区内密集设置了5个地铁站。

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天拖城市更新区位图

已经成熟的融创中心商业广场在步行可达的范围内，开车沿着鞍山西道去，再往前走就是南开大悦城、鲁能城，基本上都一刻钟可达，标准的城市级配套。而且天拖是南开为数不多在板块内按照现代理念规划有中央公园的片区，距离水西公园、水上公园也非常近，板块环境非常宜居。

当年天房融创，后有招商天保，拿下的不是地王就是高价地块，七八年过去后，板块本身已经十分成熟，不论是商业还是居住氛围。如果非要说匮乏：只有两个，一个是城市界面的迭代升级，一个就是始终没能引入一个眼下极为流行的九年一贯制的金字招牌。

天拖城市更新项目明显get到了这个最热门的抓手与客户进入板块的核心痛点——据说要在板块内引入优质中小学组成的九年一贯制，强化板块内的教育资源优势。

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天拖城市更新园区效果图

与此同时，针对闲置用地打造现代化产业园区，完全是对标苏州广深的做法，大面积提升周边老旧社区、市政以及城市安全建设，在匹配天开高教园未来的发展导向与对周边的城市面貌需求。

无形中，天开园与天拖的城市更新隔路呼应，形成了整个南开乃至天津的产业驱动核心区，2023年起于板块发动机打造，2024年已经在着手提升这个发动机的片区配套，这是红旗路两翼近年来迎来的最大利好，毕竟制造业是天拖的过去，智慧制造才是天津的未来。

PART 03

格调加持，改善市场新黑马？

作为城市更新的配套住宅地块，格调天拖项目从拿地起就备受关注，核心原因就在于格调加持，而且是今年南开最为焦点的2个项目之一。

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天拖城市更新区域鸟瞰图

2020年以前南开在售项目寥寥，2021年3个住宅项目面世，但无一例外都是高端豪宅定位，起步总价700万，这也让很多南开人很受伤——买个面积、产品、总价都合适的项目太难了，这成了支撑周边次新二手房价格高企的核心逻辑。

但是2023年，掐指一算南开至少有5个新盘会同时入市，注意是纯新盘，而且这些新盘一次性填满了单价从3.5-5万这个供应空白，也是350-600万改善客户最为密集的总价区间。

在同等总价段内，剩余比拼的不外乎就是产品、户型与品牌，在这方面，格调无疑是个最令人忌惮的对手，也是南开客户最为期待的存在。

格调天拖地块处于红旗路以西，但与红旗路之间规划的是新型都市产业区，这就让住宅与快速干道之间形成了非常理想的阻隔：既能享受干线交通的便利，又杜绝了交通的干扰。

▲格调·观麟花园区位图

整个项目一共切分成了两个住宅地块，中央是一条社区道路，西侧是融创天拖此新住宅区，北侧是产业园区与现代写字楼，南侧是融创商业街，城市界面在整个南开都非常难得。

目前项目尚未释放详细信息，但是规划显示都配置的是高层与小高产品的组合，格调一贯追求品质，在高层产品上普遍是100平方米起步，端户预计面积在120平方米左右。小高产品本身在地块内是楼王位置，定位改善无疑，143平方米左右，据说同步会配置少量165平方米左右户型，小高层这个面积段基本上可以视线横厅舒适三室毫无压力。

▲格调·观麟花园外立面意向图

最近该项目城市展厅已经亮相，就在中南道与红旗路交口西侧。3.2日在线上举行了格调天拖城市更新微论坛暨案名发布会，案名叫做观麟花园。从目前的节奏来看，基本已经锁定上半年入市。今年南开无疑是群雄争霸的一出大戏，数一数共有超过14个项目在售，从供应不足直接杀入供应集中的白热化竞争阶段，天拖城市更新项目集齐了地段、产业与开发品牌的优势，在改善需求密集的南开市场能不能成为率先杀出重围的一匹黑马，也是上半年楼市最具看点的存在。

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